All India Analysis of Malaria Control in India:-
Per Capita mosquito repellant sales have registered constant increase in value due to rising demand and price of the repellants. Mosquito repellant and mosquito net are substitutes to each other and are effectively utilized in unison for mosquito control as they have very high but negative correlation with each other. Hence states and union territories with high demand for mosquito repellants have low per capita sales for mosquito nets. Over the years, even though the decline was registered in number of mosquito nets sold, the demand for mosquito repellants is on constant rise. Economic status of a state is an important factor on which mosquito net sales depends.
Per capita Budget allocation for vector control was highest in 2014 and it has remained constant post launch of National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination by 2030 in 2016. Majority of the malaria and other vector borne diseases are reported in month of June to September. Mosquito repellant sales have weak positive correlation with number of malaria cases signifying that mosquito repellant sales are not much impacted by the burden of malaria.
Only 3 states and 1 union territory registered constant decline in number of malaria cases during the estimation period (2013-2017). 8 states and Union territories registered decline in 3 years over the period of estimation. Only 1 state constant decline pattern over the period of estimation and other remaining 7 states registered intermittent behavior. 1 union territory registered highest growth in number of reported Malaria cases in 2017. The decline in number of cases was a high as ~% in some states.
India Mosquito Repellent Market Size And Segmentation:-
The sale of mosquito repellent products has increased from INR ~ crore in 2013 to INR ~ crore in 2014. In 2014, the overall malaria cases have increased from 2013. This has been due to rise in waste disposal in urban areas and blocked drains owing to which the large number of mosquitoes breed causing malaria. The sale of mosquito repellent products has increased from INR ~ crore in 2015 to INR ~ crore in 2016. In 2015, Mosquito repellent makers such as Godrej Consumer Products, Dabur and Piramal Enterprise have headed towards different schools of the country with their vaporizers, creams, patches and bands. These companies are targeting students as they are the biggest influencers in the family. Home insecticides posted strong growth in 2017 due to increased usage of these products owing to the spread of diseases like dengue, swine flu, malaria and chikungunya. Every year, many people in India are affected by diseases spread by mosquitoes. Consumers are consequently taking precautionary measures, thus driving demand for home insecticides.
Segmentation by Type of Repellants: In 2017, Mosquito liquid have the highest market share as they are in maximum demand and do not produce any type of smoke and is not harmful to people. The mosquito coil has contributed second highest share. The share of mosquito coil is on constant decline and is mostly substituted by liquid vaporizers. It has declined from ~% in 2013 to ~% in 2017. Mosquito cards registered sudden traction post launch at the end of 2013 but showed very slow growth in 2017 registering a slight decrease in market share in 2017 (from ~% in 2016 to ~% in 2017).
Number of Malaria Cases:-
Number of malaria cases increased from 2013 to 2015 and then registered decline in 2016 and 2017. Number of PF cases was more prominent and followed the trend of number of malaria cases reported. However number of PV cases first declined in 2014 then increased in 2015 and again started declining in 2016 and 2017 (PF cases are more deadly than PV cases). Among 36 states/ UTs, Odisha has always topped in terms of malaria cases followed by Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand from 2013 to 2017. Odisha has always reported highest number of cases due to its climatic condition and high rural population. Poor awareness about the disease and its preventive measures, large number of tribal population are other key factors that prompted the growth in number of cases. In 2016, the Odisha state government has earmarked INR ~ Crore for the implementation of the scheme for next five years. At least INR ~ crore will be spent from the State Budget every year to control and prevent malaria through the innovative and integrated approach.
Annual Parasite Incidence:-
The number of malaria cases per 1,000 people in a year is called the annual parasite incidence or API of the region. The API represents the most broadly applied measure of risk of infection. Many health authorities rely upon the API as the core measure of risk of infection. In 2017, API above 1 was reported by 7 states. API is high in these areas as high number of cases per capita is reported in these states. Lack of awareness among rural and tribal people about the health consequences is another factor promoting the prevalence of disease. If the API is above 1 then the area becomes more risky and is considered malaria endemic. Moreover, if the API is above 1 then the state government becomes more active and take initiatives to reduce the API. Random testing of population in infected areas is carried out to identify the malaria and other vector borne diseases.
Mosquito Net Sales:-
Among 36 states and union territories, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh has the highest users of single and double bed mosquito nets. This is majorly due to shortage of power supply, high percentage of rural population, low per capita income, lack of regular source of income and lifestyle. The market value of single bed mosquito nets in the year 2017 was INR ~ crore whereas the market value for double bed mosquito nets in the year 2017 was INR ~ crore. The untreated mosquito nets are generally made up of nylon, polyester, cotton and HDPE material. In order to manufacture one nylon mosquito net on an average, around 10 meters of nylon net is required.
Long Lasting Insecticidal Nets:-
Insecticide treatment is recommended for synthetic nets (nylon and polyester), as treatment of cotton nets is not cost-effective and effect of insecticide is not long lasting. Insecticides used for mosquito nets are not harmful to people, if used correctly. The nets should preferably be treated outdoors in the shade. If treatment is to be carried out indoors, a room with open windows should be used. LLINs are mosquito nets which have the insecticide incorporated in their fibre, so that it is not removed by as many as 20 washes. Almost all companies reduced their prices during the period of estimation. Vestergaard Frandsen and VKA Polymers constantly reduce their prices during the period of estimation.
Factors Effecting the Market:-
Per Capita Income: In FY’2013 ending March, the highest per capita income was registered for Goa i.e. INR ~ and the lowest per capita income was observed in Bihar i.e. INR ~. While in Fiscal Year ending March 2017, the highest per capita income was in Delhi i.e. INR ~ and the lowest per capita income was registered in Bihar i.e. INR ~. The per capita income in Delhi has grown by ~% in 2016-2017 in comparison to 2015-2016 overtaking Goa. This is because GDP in Delhi has consistently grown faster than India’s. Around 19 states in India have higher per capita income than the national average. However, many of these states are high endemic states for prevalence of malaria.
GDP: In FY’2013, the highest GDP was of Maharashtra state i.e. INR ~ crore and the lowest GDP was of Andaman & Nicobar Island i.e. INR ~ crore. While in FY’2017, the highest GDP was of Maharashtra state i.e. INR ~ crore and the lowest per capita income was of Sikkim state i.e. INR ~ crore. Maharashtra has the highest GDP as it is the fastest growing state and has improved its share of development expenditure in total expenditure. On the other hand, Maharashtra has moved from low to high growth while maintaining its fiscal deficit below the FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) target.
Number of Districts, Panchayat, Sub-districts and Blocks: Malaria is commonly considered as a disease of poverty as areas with high rural population and low per capita income are more susceptible to malaria. States with high concentration of tribal population are the most affected states. Among top 15 states with high percentage of Tribal Population all except for Rajasthan have registered high number of malaria cases. These include major states such as Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. Rural and tribal population has very little awareness about the causes and prevention methods and hence is most vulnerable to malaria and other vector borne diseases. Creating awareness and active participation in malaria control programs is the key to eradication of malaria in less urbanized states.
API has registered an erratic trend in West Bengal highlighting that number of Malaria cases have declined from 2013-2015 and then increased in 2016. It again registered a decline in 2017. It has showcased linkage to budget allocation in the previous year. Urbanization has direct positive impact on the sales of mosquito repellant sales and is also the key factor in controlling the number malaria cases. It has been observed that at all India level API is negatively correlated to API indicating that as the urbanization increases it lead to decrease in API.
Odisha has the highest number of malaria cases over the years. This is because of large forest area in tropical climate where mosquitoes easily breed and high ratio of tribal rural population who reside in and around these forest areas and are not aware of vector borne diseases. Moreover, in Odisha, mosquitoes tend to transmit the disease efficiently. The state government has taken many initiatives for eliminating malaria and therefore in April 2018, Odisha reported decline of ~% in the average number of malaria cases in a month. Every year, Odisha government conducts routine campaign. In this campaign ~ professionals are trained for providing services at community level and these professionals do all the malaria treatment and awareness programs. In 2016, there were ~ districts in Odisha where API was above 10 but in 2017 the number was reduced to ~ districts.
In 2017, the number of malaria cases in Uttar Pradesh was ~ which were lower than in 2016. To control malaria and other vector borne diseases in Uttar Pradesh, the principal secretary (health and family welfare) of Uttar Pradesh has issued guidelines to all the district magistrates and officials of the various departments of the state. Moreover, Uttar Pradesh has also adopted a malaria elimination program, which aims to reduce the prevalence of the disease to less than ~ case per 1,000 people by the year 2030. API has registered constant decline from 2013 to 2017 (except 2015 when there was minor increase) signifying that number of Malaria cases have declined. Budget allocation increased significantly in 2016 to INR ~ crore. Similar allocation (INR ~ crore) was done in 2017. Decline was registered in number of malaria cases reported in the state. Urbanization has direct positive impact on the sales of mosquito repellant sales and is also the key factor in controlling the number malaria cases. In case of Uttar Pradesh the number of malaria cases reported has negative correlation with urbanization signifying that it is line with observation at national level.
The state reported ~ total malaria cases in 2016, while the total number of cases surged to ~ in 2017. There was a hike in number of malaria cases because the state experienced drought which led to spike in the breeding of mosquitoes in 2017. Water logging after drought brought a rise in the mosquito population owing to rise in the number of malaria cases in the state. API has registered constant decline from 2013 to 2016 but increased in 2017 highlighting that number of Malaria cases have increased in 2017. Urbanization has direct positive impact on the sales of mosquito repellant sales however in contrast to other major malaria endemic states majority of the malaria cases in Tamil Nadu were reported in highly urbanized districts. In case of Tamil Nadu the number of malaria cases reported has positive correlation with urbanization showing deviation with observation at national level.
In 2017, the number of malaria cases in Maharashtra was ~ which were reduced by ~ from 2016. District-wise monthly reports are compiled and collected from the state through active and passive surveillance by health facilities. This includes collection of data at the village levels by ASHAs (Accredited Social Health Activist) for tracking malaria. Maharashtra has also adopted a malaria elimination program, which aims to reduce the prevalence of the disease to less than one case per 1,000 people by the year 2030. API has registered increase from 2013 to 2015 but has declined since then highlighting that number of Malaria cases have decreased in 2016 and 2017. Malaria cases were among highest in Mumbai even though it is totally urban population and consumer awareness is good. Urbanization has direct positive impact on the sales of mosquito repellant sales however in contrast to other major malaria endemic states majority of the malaria cases in Maharashtra were reported in highly urbanized districts. In case of Maharashtra the number of malaria cases reported has moderate positive correlation with urbanization showing deviation with observation at national level. Positive Correlation in Maharashtra is opposite to national level correlation of.
In 2017, the number of malaria cases in Andhra Pradesh was ~ which is 6,700 lower than in 2016. This reduction in number of malaria cases were because of government initiative for eliminating malaria form the state. Malaria cases were highest in the state are from East Godavari and Visakhapatnam. People living in rural areas of these districts are more prone to malaria fever. API has registered increase from 2013 to 2015 but has declined since then, highlighting that number of Malaria cases have decreased in 2016 and 2017. API in both the districts has remained higher than 1 making them malaria endemic district requiring special focus. Urbanization has direct positive impact on the sales of mosquito repellant sales however in contrast to other major malaria endemic states, majority of the malaria cases in Andhra Pradesh were reported in both urbanized districts with climate and rainfall playing significant role. In case of Andhra Pradesh, the number of malaria cases reported has positive correlation with urbanization showing deviation with observation at national level. Positive Correlation in Andhra Pradesh is opposite to national level correlation.
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Ankur Gupta, Head Marketing & Communications