Research Methodology – Market Definitions
Thailand Biogas and Biomass market: It is defined as the total cumulative installed capacity completed for construction of Biogas and Biomass market. It includes both ongrid and offgrid plants and excludes the project executed by Thai firms outside the country.
Thailand EPC Market for Biogas and Biomass Plant: It include the total value of projects commissioned in a particular year for construction of new plants and capacity upgradation of existing plants. It includes the cost of engineering, construction, material supply and commissioning.
Thailand Biogas and Biomass Market by Generation: It is defined as the amount of electricty generated by biogas and biomass unit in GWh and revenue associated with it at FiT. It only includes the revenue generated by selling the electricity to Discoms. It excludes the electricty used for captive purpose.
Northern Thailand : Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Sukhothai, Phitsanulok, Phichit, Kamphaeng Phet, Phetchabun, Tak, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lampang, Lamphun, Mae Hong Son, Nan, Phayao, Phrae, Uttaradit
North Eastern Thailand: Amnat Charoen, Bueng Kan, Buri Ram, Chaiyaphum, Kalasin, Khon Kaen, Loei, Maha Sarakham, Mukdahan, Nakhon Phanom, Nakhon Ratchasima, Nong Bua Lamphu, Nong Khai, Roi Et, Sakon Nakhon, Si Sa Ket, Surin, Ubon Ratchathani, Udon Thani, Yasothon
Central Thailand: Ang Thong, Chainat, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Bangkok, Lop Buri, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon, Samut Songkhram, Saraburi, Sing Buri, Suphan Buri, Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Kanchanaburi, Ratchaburi, Chachoengsao, Chanthaburi, Trat, Chon Buri, , Prachin Buri, Rayong, and Sa Kaeo
Southern Thailand: Chumphon, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Narathiwat, Pattani, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Surat Thani, Yala, Krabi, Phang Nga, Phuket, Ranong, Satun, Trang
Research Methodology – Consolidated Research Approach
Hypothesis Creation: The research team has first framed a hypothesis about the market through analysis of existing industry factors obtained from magazines, journals, broker reports, investor presentations and annual reports of major companies, Ministry of Energy, Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, International Finance Corporation and Others.
Hypothesis Testing: The research team conducted computer assisted telephonic interview (CATI) with industry professionals including decision makers in EPC and Equipment manufacturing companies. The industry professionals included management executives, and other higher level authorities. Structured interviews were conducted through telecom with several industry veterans including major decision makers from Asia biogas, Association of 3 and other companies. The analyst at Ken Research collated their insights on the market onboard and to seek justification to the hypothesis framed by the team.
Sanity Checking @ Decision Tree Analysis: Data has been collected and verified through cross-sanity checking the opinion and facts received from interview with the hypotheses framed from public databases. The team has verified the data by cross referring international and domestic renewable energy organization.
Future Forecasting via Poll Opinions and Statistical Tools: Multi-Factor regression was conducted on the lag variables by identifying the independent and quantifiable variables directly affecting the market. The forecasting was done by using SPSS statistical tools. The variables were checked for multi-co-linearity and other bias that could be present in the model. The conclusion from the regression was then double-checked by conducting poll opinions.
Interpretation and Proofreading: The final analysis will then be interpreted in the research report by our expert team well versed with the Bioenergy Industry.
Research Methodology – Market Sizing and Limitation – Thailand Biogas and Biomass Market
Initially, we identified all major EPC and equipment supplier of biogas and biomass companies operating in the market. We then collated the capacity installed in biogas and biomass market in 2017. This helped us in sanity checking the current market size provided by other leading global renewable energy organizations.
We calculated the cost of installation of one megawatt of capacity for biogas and biomass EPC market separately, and then estimated the total cost of EPC market by multiplying the per megawatt cost by the capacity installed in 2017 and other preceding years.
To check the sanity of the estimation, figures were cross referenced with the amount of investments in the sector.
It can happen that some of the projects may get caught up in legal battle or protest from local bodies which can either delay the project or may even stop the project. It is also possible that company exit the projects due to some technical or financial issue.
Depending on the feedstock used storage handling and disposal of waste may require different system and hence cost may vary.
Market for O&M was estimated based on opinion provided by industry experts, however it might be possible that it may vary slightly with margin of error of 10% from original market size considering that different units may have different cost of construction depending on varying factors and gauging such information was our research constraint.
Research Methodology – Variables (Dependent and Independent)
Total Renewable Energy Installed Capacity in Thailand MW:. Installed capacity in renewable energy in Thailand gives an idea of how the complete renewable energy sector is doing.
Rice Production in Thousand Tons: Rice husk is the major source of biomass in Thailand. Production of electricity from biomass is largely dependant on rice production in the country.
Processed Sugar Production in Tons: Bagasse which is the by product of sugar processing industry is a source of fuel for biomass plants.
The report applies Correlation and Regression analysis methods to forecast the future of the biogas and biomass market. The capabilities of SPSS and predictive analytics software have been leveraged to determine the relevant indicators used for forecasting this industry.
In the present case, installed capacity of biogas and biomass market has been taken as the dependent variable and other variables such as Total Renewable Energy Installed Capacity in Thailand, Rice Production, Processed Sugar Production have been taken as independent variables.
For more information on the research report, refer to below link:
Ankur Gupta, Head Marketing & Communications