The Construction Intelligence Center (CIC) expects the pace of expansion in the Global Construction Industry to average 3.6% a year over the forecast period (2018-2022)-down slightly compared with 3.7% in the March 2018 forecast update. In real value terms (measured at constant 2017 prices and USD exchange rates), global construction output is forecast to rise to USD 12.7 trillion in 2022, up from USD 10.6 trillion in 2017.
The global economy will continue to post healthy rates of growth in 2018-2019, and investor confidence will remain buoyant. The expected tightening in monetary policy in major markets in 2018 will start to push up the cost of borrowing, but with interest rates generally at or near historic lows, this process is not expected to have a major impact on construction activity during the early part of the forecast period.
Construction output growth will accelerate marginally to 3.7% in 2019, before easing back in the latter part of the forecast period, reflecting trends in some of the largest markets, notably China and the US.
The acceleration in growth in global construction output in 2018-2019 is being driven primarily by the pickup in advanced economies, with combined growth in these markets rising to 2.7%, compared to 2.0% in 2017.
Although growth in emerging markets will remain in excess of that in advanced economies over the forecast period, there will be a steady slowdown in growth in construction spending in emerging markets-primarily reflecting trends in China, which has the largest construction market in the world. In 2018-2022, construction output growth in emerging markets will average 4.3% a year, down from 4.9% in 2013-2017.
The Asia-Pacific region will continue to account for the largest share of the global construction industry, given that it includes the large markets of China, Japan and India. The pace of growth will slow, however, given the projected slowdown in China’s construction industry.
The emerging markets of South-East Asia will invest heavily in new infrastructure projects, supported by private investment. Meanwhile, construction growth in India will gather pace following a poor performance in 2017.
Construction activity is gathering momentum across Western Europe. The region’s output will expand by 2.4% a year on average in 2018-2022, improving on the sluggish growth of 1.1% in 2013-2017.
An overview of the outlook for the global construction industry to 2022 Analysis of the outlook for the construction industry in major global regions: North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, South and South-East Asia, North-East Asia, Australasia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa A comprehensive benchmarking of 83 leading construction markets according to construction market value and growth Analysis of the latest data on construction output trends in key markets.
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Ankur Gupta, Head Marketing & Communications