While the market has recovered well since the financial crisis, often growing by a double-digit percentage year-on-year, rising economic uncertainties will dampen the prospects for future growth over the coming years. During 2017-21, gross advances are expected to record a CAGR of 5.7%, reaching 327.0bn by the end of the forecast period.
On the supply side, an increased supply of new homes, stamp duty relief for first-time buyers, and tighter controls on buy-to-let lenders will improve matters for first-time buyers by reducing investor demand for properties. Legislative changes in the buy-to-let sector such as higher stamp duty and stricter underwriting standards will act as a drag on future growth, in what has been the standout sector in the years since the financial crisis.
Political uncertainty arising from the Brexit negotiations has dampened the economy’s prospects. At the same time, real wages are shrinking as annual pay increases fail to keep pace with rising inflation. Combined with the rapid growth in consumer credit and ensuing high levels of household debt, this will limit the capacity of consumers to take on significantly higher levels of mortgage debt. This report offers five-year gross lending forecasts for residential and niche mortgages up to 2021, along with a detailed examination of the various demand- and supply-side factors that will determine the market outlook. It offers insight into The key macroeconomic, regulatory, and other factors that will drive the demand for and supply of mortgages over the next five years. The outlook for niche sectors, including buy-to-let, equity release, shared ownership, shared equity, and self-build.
The impressive growth in buy-to-let lending as seen over the last few years has come to a sudden halt, and is unlikely to resume in the near future. Equity release continues to enjoy much success, with lending showing significant year-on-year growth. Prospects for further growth are healthy, with several years’ worth of property price rises leaving borrowers with plenty of capital value to unlock, while the cost of equity release products is falling. Lending on shared ownership properties will see huge percentage increases over the forecast period, largely off the back of the government’snew Affordable Homes Programme 2016-21. An estimated 135,000 shared ownership homes will be built under this scheme, thus fueling a boom in associated mortgage lending.
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